Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.536527 2.703602 2.881748 3.086814 3.317593 3.570761 3.871556
2025-03-30 2.271153 2.493541 2.743162 3.047381 3.412766 3.843784 4.400632
2025-04-06 2.093334 2.343353 2.633768 3.001979 3.465521 4.043280 4.841708
2025-04-13 1.942217 2.204160 2.515963 2.922927 3.453813 4.144731 5.153889
2025-04-20 1.870617 2.151479 2.493977 2.954286 3.577323 4.426596 5.746370
2025-04-27 1.822107 2.121480 2.494794 3.010592 3.734165 4.767398 6.481233
2025-05-04 1.778411 2.093144 2.493523 3.060837 3.883748 5.112803 7.290811
2025-05-11 1.711337 2.029945 2.441155 3.034741 3.917710 5.283143 7.835827
2025-05-18 1.653221 1.974872 2.395510 3.013202 3.954007 5.458407 8.425566
2025-05-25 1.598846 1.921749 2.348954 2.985957 3.977204 5.612290 9.008049
2025-06-01 1.548713 1.871807 2.303749 2.956834 3.993412 5.754111 9.600138
2025-06-08 1.513140 1.839811 2.281535 2.959728 4.060258 5.993329 10.477611
2025-06-15 1.489075 1.823115 2.280808 2.996282 4.188438 6.370403 11.840103
2025-06-22 1.443195 1.774353 2.231754 2.954729 4.179444 6.480747 12.557066
2025-06-29 1.399938 1.727616 2.183478 2.911262 4.162864 6.572940 13.263377
2025-07-06 1.350411 1.670412 2.117616 2.836112 4.083714 6.524493 13.530735
2025-07-13 1.333129 1.658135 2.117202 2.865917 4.196417 6.902346 15.362209
2025-07-20 1.323200 1.655766 2.131078 2.919409 4.357660 7.418761 18.072157
2025-07-27 1.312188 1.651283 2.141311 2.967114 4.512580 7.954694 21.408224
2025-08-03 1.283764 1.620488 2.110043 2.942341 4.522319 8.134248 23.294470
2025-08-10 1.257872 1.592619 2.082213 2.921887 4.538833 8.335133 25.542432
2025-08-17 1.231986 1.564015 2.052204 2.896009 4.541925 8.501618 27.832972
2025-08-24 1.206913 1.535936 2.022054 2.868338 4.538958 8.651944 30.277815